An Saoi: Accurate and current information is crucial to giving an up to date view of what is really going on in the Irish economy. The Commission for Communications Regulation (ComReg) have just produced the latest issue of their quarterly statistical review of the communications industry, covering Quarter 2 of 2009 published on 10th September.
A huge amount of relevant current information is available, not just relating to telephones and internet but also to broadcasting. I am glad to see that the number of we refuseniks without cable or satellite connections is increasing. Spending on communications and on television are core parts of household expenditure and substantial cuts in such expenditure suggest major changes in the focus of household budgets.
My own personal interest is in mobile communications. The Report confirms a continued substantial decline in mobile phone numbers with penetration levels falling to 2006 levels. The one area of growth was mobile broadband, which also made up over 50% of the increase in total broadband connections . However there was an overall decline in internet connections because of the reduction in narrowband usage. Internet usage appears to be peaking. The dire state of broadband in Ireland was well covered here on this site by Dr. Dónal Palcic of UL, and for a more sobering view, have a read of this piece by Kathleen Barrington.
I have previously written here suggesting that the decline in the number of active mobile connections was a clear sign of emigration. Local Demographics alone should be providing a substantial increase in the market as there are far more young people reaching the age of their first mobile than customers dying. Michael Taft has produced some interesting figures on the August unemployment figures, which raise similar issues.
The degree of decline in income from mobile calls and texts between Q2 2008 & Q2 2009 is a massive 18% or €75.65M. The moderate increase in Data revenue of €16M hardly makes up for this loss of income, considering the addition costs of hardware etc. The decline has been particularly marked since the start of 2009, however the year on year decline in the first quarter was just 7.5%
The income decline in the Irish mobile market is extraordinary and considerably exceeds that of other mature markets. Indeed it exceeds that of Germany , a country with a seriously declining population. Certainly some of the decline is down to price reductions and economic conditions however the suddenness of the decline suggests the disappearance of a large number of customers.
Between Quarter 2, 2008 and Quarter 2, 2009, the number of mobile phones declined from 4,985,987 to 4,809,857. Natural population increases should have added at least 40,000 customers, leaving a discrepancy of well over 200,000.
The next report is due in the middle of December, and I await its publication with interest.
Showing posts with label emigration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label emigration. Show all posts
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
Sunday, 26 July 2009
Where have all the people gone?
An Saoi: Bus journeys in Dublin have become pleasant again. There is nearly always a seat and while there may have been a reduction in the number of buses on some routes, those of us lucky enough to be served by a number of routes are not unduly discommoded by waiting an extra minute or two.
There is also a distinct lack of non-nationals. So where have all the people gone?
While searching for answers, Vodafone helpfully announced a 46,000 or 2.4% drop in mobile phone customers in the three months to 30th June in Ireland and this confirms a trend decline noted in Comreg’s report for the first quarter. There was a total decline of 74,000 in the first quarter and based on the Vodafone figure, subscriber losses in the second quarter may be as high as 100,000. Now, the first thing every new arrival to Ireland gets - even before their PPS No. - is that essential of modern life, a mobile phone.
A number of academics who post regularly on Irish Economy have expressed fears about their graduating students being forced to emigrate, and certainly conversations overheard on buses seem to confirm that many see no future here.
The CSO also published recently the Retail Sales Index for May. The volume decline in car sales and household furniture has been well covered elsewhere, but what about food (-6.6%), or even fuel (-11.2%), let alone clothing (-17.1%)? I accept that people may have cut back to a degree on many items, but food? The decline between April & May alone was 2% but the decline in the previous three months was 4.1%, suggesting a clear pattern in the decline in the number of consumers is contributing to the decline.
The CSO was due to publish, before the end of July, migration figures for the early part of the year. Date of publication has been deferred until the end of August. Can it be that they are rechecking their figures?
Net Emigration in the 1950s was in the region of 412,000 or about 13% of the resident population at the end of the decade. In two years it exceeded 70,000. In the late 1980s, it averaged over 35,000 per annum. 2009 may yet break all records, for the wrong reasons.
“This country is too small to support all her people” as someone called Brian Lenihan once said in 1991, but is that true?
There is also a distinct lack of non-nationals. So where have all the people gone?
While searching for answers, Vodafone helpfully announced a 46,000 or 2.4% drop in mobile phone customers in the three months to 30th June in Ireland and this confirms a trend decline noted in Comreg’s report for the first quarter. There was a total decline of 74,000 in the first quarter and based on the Vodafone figure, subscriber losses in the second quarter may be as high as 100,000. Now, the first thing every new arrival to Ireland gets - even before their PPS No. - is that essential of modern life, a mobile phone.
A number of academics who post regularly on Irish Economy have expressed fears about their graduating students being forced to emigrate, and certainly conversations overheard on buses seem to confirm that many see no future here.
The CSO also published recently the Retail Sales Index for May. The volume decline in car sales and household furniture has been well covered elsewhere, but what about food (-6.6%), or even fuel (-11.2%), let alone clothing (-17.1%)? I accept that people may have cut back to a degree on many items, but food? The decline between April & May alone was 2% but the decline in the previous three months was 4.1%, suggesting a clear pattern in the decline in the number of consumers is contributing to the decline.
The CSO was due to publish, before the end of July, migration figures for the early part of the year. Date of publication has been deferred until the end of August. Can it be that they are rechecking their figures?
Net Emigration in the 1950s was in the region of 412,000 or about 13% of the resident population at the end of the decade. In two years it exceeded 70,000. In the late 1980s, it averaged over 35,000 per annum. 2009 may yet break all records, for the wrong reasons.
“This country is too small to support all her people” as someone called Brian Lenihan once said in 1991, but is that true?
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