Slí Eile: Before anyone gets carried away with claims that newcomers are heading home and families are abandoning their homes and schools …latest published CSO data (Population and Migration Estimates) confirm that:
* inward migration is down but is still running at twice the annual average of what it was in the late-1980s (57,000 in the 12 months to April 2009)
* emigration is picking up and this is clearly impacting on ‘EU12’ (including Polish workers affected by the building slump)
* there were more children under the age of 15 entering the State than leaving up to last April (table 5)
* the collapse in employment and the severity of the recession in Ireland will, undoubtedly, give rise to some net outward migration. This process may even accelerate in the course of 2010 as unemployment peaks, here, and labour market conditions improve abroad. However, there are major caveats:
* family migration is much slower to respond which explains the absence of any significant flows for persons under 15 (as distinct from those in their 20s and 30s)
* conditions, today, are very different to those in mid-1980s Ireland (welfare for families has improved in relative terms even if these are now under threat)....
* employment conditions across Europe are precarious - countries like Poland has an unemployment rate of 8% and rising in Q1 of this year (and higher still in the Baltic Republics) – check out Table 25 of today's CSO Quarterly National Household Survey.
Also, the following profile of migration in Ireland is of interest - click here.
As we peer into the future there is much uncertainty (NAMA long-term values and demographics please note) about what will happen here, in the UK, across the EU27 and elsewhere. Some period of prolonged and slow recovery, here, allied to ‘jobless growth’ is one possible outcome. The relationships, drivers and ‘push and pull’ factors are not as they were in the past and it would be foolish to extrapolate too much from the past. Migration used to be the joker in the demography pack. Births and fertility have now joined migration as the great unknown. Some commentators are predicting a fall in births and in the birth rate as the recession kicks in. The latest available data indicate that births continue to run at a very high level – the highest since the late 19th Century with a total period fertility rate of close to 2.1 in 2008 (replacement level).
The implications for population growth and continuing demand for service provision are ominous. There is no comfort for those of the view that the recession will solve the excess demand for social housing, education and a decent health service. A Malthusian market response is not on the cards any time soon. Our economy and society is more closely enmeshed in the global situation than ever.
Showing posts with label demographics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demographics. Show all posts
Tuesday, 22 September 2009
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
A demographic take
An Saoi: Accurate and current information is crucial to giving an up to date view of what is really going on in the Irish economy. The Commission for Communications Regulation (ComReg) have just produced the latest issue of their quarterly statistical review of the communications industry, covering Quarter 2 of 2009 published on 10th September.
A huge amount of relevant current information is available, not just relating to telephones and internet but also to broadcasting. I am glad to see that the number of we refuseniks without cable or satellite connections is increasing. Spending on communications and on television are core parts of household expenditure and substantial cuts in such expenditure suggest major changes in the focus of household budgets.
My own personal interest is in mobile communications. The Report confirms a continued substantial decline in mobile phone numbers with penetration levels falling to 2006 levels. The one area of growth was mobile broadband, which also made up over 50% of the increase in total broadband connections . However there was an overall decline in internet connections because of the reduction in narrowband usage. Internet usage appears to be peaking. The dire state of broadband in Ireland was well covered here on this site by Dr. Dónal Palcic of UL, and for a more sobering view, have a read of this piece by Kathleen Barrington.
I have previously written here suggesting that the decline in the number of active mobile connections was a clear sign of emigration. Local Demographics alone should be providing a substantial increase in the market as there are far more young people reaching the age of their first mobile than customers dying. Michael Taft has produced some interesting figures on the August unemployment figures, which raise similar issues.
The degree of decline in income from mobile calls and texts between Q2 2008 & Q2 2009 is a massive 18% or €75.65M. The moderate increase in Data revenue of €16M hardly makes up for this loss of income, considering the addition costs of hardware etc. The decline has been particularly marked since the start of 2009, however the year on year decline in the first quarter was just 7.5%
The income decline in the Irish mobile market is extraordinary and considerably exceeds that of other mature markets. Indeed it exceeds that of Germany , a country with a seriously declining population. Certainly some of the decline is down to price reductions and economic conditions however the suddenness of the decline suggests the disappearance of a large number of customers.
Between Quarter 2, 2008 and Quarter 2, 2009, the number of mobile phones declined from 4,985,987 to 4,809,857. Natural population increases should have added at least 40,000 customers, leaving a discrepancy of well over 200,000.
The next report is due in the middle of December, and I await its publication with interest.
A huge amount of relevant current information is available, not just relating to telephones and internet but also to broadcasting. I am glad to see that the number of we refuseniks without cable or satellite connections is increasing. Spending on communications and on television are core parts of household expenditure and substantial cuts in such expenditure suggest major changes in the focus of household budgets.
My own personal interest is in mobile communications. The Report confirms a continued substantial decline in mobile phone numbers with penetration levels falling to 2006 levels. The one area of growth was mobile broadband, which also made up over 50% of the increase in total broadband connections . However there was an overall decline in internet connections because of the reduction in narrowband usage. Internet usage appears to be peaking. The dire state of broadband in Ireland was well covered here on this site by Dr. Dónal Palcic of UL, and for a more sobering view, have a read of this piece by Kathleen Barrington.
I have previously written here suggesting that the decline in the number of active mobile connections was a clear sign of emigration. Local Demographics alone should be providing a substantial increase in the market as there are far more young people reaching the age of their first mobile than customers dying. Michael Taft has produced some interesting figures on the August unemployment figures, which raise similar issues.
The degree of decline in income from mobile calls and texts between Q2 2008 & Q2 2009 is a massive 18% or €75.65M. The moderate increase in Data revenue of €16M hardly makes up for this loss of income, considering the addition costs of hardware etc. The decline has been particularly marked since the start of 2009, however the year on year decline in the first quarter was just 7.5%
The income decline in the Irish mobile market is extraordinary and considerably exceeds that of other mature markets. Indeed it exceeds that of Germany , a country with a seriously declining population. Certainly some of the decline is down to price reductions and economic conditions however the suddenness of the decline suggests the disappearance of a large number of customers.
Between Quarter 2, 2008 and Quarter 2, 2009, the number of mobile phones declined from 4,985,987 to 4,809,857. Natural population increases should have added at least 40,000 customers, leaving a discrepancy of well over 200,000.
The next report is due in the middle of December, and I await its publication with interest.
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